ccording to estimates of damages reviewed in May 2019 by the government’s Central Disaster Management Council, the number of deaths and missing persons if the … In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. Given this likelihood, estimating the resulting tsunami in real time is desirable. Tokai Earthquake History . I was perplexed by the comments. Suga expected to declare second emergency for Tokyo area. If the Nankai Trough Earthquake were to occur as predicted, the Mie prefecture would experience an earthquake over 94.7% of the total area (5777 km 2) with a JMA seismic intensity of 6 or greater and a tsunami affecting 4.9% of the total area (283 km 2) . Among those concerns, three types of negative attitudes toward tsunami risk preparedness were perceived: overly pessimistic, overly optimistic, and overly dependent. According to a government projection, the death toll from a magnitude-9.0 or stronger quake and tsunami occurring along the depression could be as high as 320,000. “If the government presented a figure of 80 percent, then people would think the earthquake coming next would be a Nankai Trough quake and disaster prevention measures would be concentrated on that particular quake,” Sagiya said. The quake itself would likely kill thousands, and a series of 34-meter (112-foot) tall … The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and following predictions of a Nankai megathrust earthquake have aroused great concerns on tsunami risks among the Japanese people. But we should mention somewhere that the figure can be 20 percent if we use a different method.”. “It has various problems,” “It doesn’t mean much,” “I have no idea why we are presenting this,” “We shouldn’t present this,” “We can’t do this, no matter what,” and so on. In the worst-case scenario, deaths from such a disaster could exceed 230,000. Nankai Trough. New technology for earthquake prediction: Nankai Trough, Japan Dr Yusuke Yokota and colleagues at the University of Tokyo are developing so-called GNSS-A technology, which combines satellite positioning technology (GNSS) and acoustic positioning technology (A) to create precise observations of the seafloor position. The press release handed out at the time of the 2013 announcement does not mention the 20 percent figure at all in its summary referred to as the “main text.” Despite all the heated debate on the issue, it is buried in the latter part of the bulky document, as if to deliberately make it inconspicuous. A subcommittee on ocean-trench earthquakes has prominent seismologists listed as members, and they are tasked with assessing the latest probability figures of quakes nationwide. “The figures are inflated because of special treatment and ulterior motives.”. These quakes, which happen periodically, feature large tsunamis, and a quake of the largest scale could see locations from Shizuoka Prefecture to Miyazaki Prefecture experience shaking as strong as 7 on Japan’s seismic intensity scale, with tsunamis of heights exceeding 10 meters striking a wide area of the Pacific coast from the Kantō region, home to Tokyo, down to Kyūshū. Redacted passages from minutes for the government’s Earthquake Research Committee meeting on a possible Nankai Trough quake. The Earthquake Research Committee announced in May 2013 that the chance of a quake of magnitude 8 or more happening in the Nankai Trough within 30 years was between 60 and 70 percent. Predicted maximum seismic intensities from a Nankai Trough megaquake from 7, the strongest shaking on the scale, down to 3 and below. The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long sea-bottom depression that runs about 100 km off the southern coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to the Shikoku region. disaster A so-called Nankai Trough megaquake is predicted to occur, with 70% to 80% likelihood, within the next 30 years. ], earthquake Another feature of a Nankai Trough quake is that, should a magnitude 8 temblor occur, it could trigger successive quakes across the remainder of the region. The Nankai Trough Earthquakes, megathrust earthquakes with a magnitude of around 8 or more along the Nankai Trough, has occurred repeatedly with a repetition interval of roughly 100-150 year, while the plate boundary beneath the Tokai region has not experienced large seismic slip since the 1854 Ansei Earthquake (Figure 1). It’s based on upheavals of (a stratum at) Murotsu Port, northwest of Cape Muroto in Kochi Prefecture, which have been recorded three times between 1707 and 1945,” Sagiya said. 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